I've not managed to see Rosalie in anything yet but after all the hype about her I was underwhelmed by her in the My Fair Lady segment on the National Theatres 50th
I also hate hypes but I think she's a genuinely good performer. Haven't seen her in The Light Princess but even in a silly, low-budget fringe production million years ago, she stood out and you could tell she'd make it big. I don't think she was anything special in the NT 50th celeb show either, but I doubt it's easy to do much with a 5 minute out-of-context scene from something, shrug. Each to their own, but I wouldn't really take it as a measure of someone's abilities.
As for Jenna Russell, I don't think she stands a chance at the Oliviers. If only because there are two big, expensive, still-running musicals (The Light Princess and Stephen Ward) that need awards piled upon them in order to help ticket sales and prolong their lives. That leads me to the assumption that both Craig and Alexander Hanson are overwhelming favourites for the Oliviers. I also think that the Supporting Performer category will go to someone from one of those musicals. I think only Maria Friedman stands a chance to win an award for Merrily.